Shipping Alliances Reshape Trade Routes: Delays, Blank Sailings, and Vessel Diversions Expected to Continue

March 2025

The global shipping industry is undergoing a significant transformation as major alliances restructure their operations, leading to widespread disruptions on key trade routes. This restructuring is causing delays, blank sailings, and vessel diversions, leaving both shippers and consumers grappling with uncertainty.

The most notable shift has been the dissolution of the long-standing 2M alliance between MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) and A.P. Moller-Maersk, which is set to end in 2025. In its place, new alliances such as the Gemini Cooperation, formed between Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, are taking center stage. While these changes are intended to streamline operations, they have resulted in a slew of scheduling adjustments, causing confusion and congestion.

Scheduling Chaos and Port Congestion

As shipping alliances realign their schedules, shippers have reported discrepancies in arrival times, leading to confusion across the industry. Some carriers, even within the same alliance, are listing different transit times for the same vessel, contributing to widespread scheduling confusion. Ports, especially in Asia, are experiencing severe congestion, with ships waiting up to three days for a berth, exacerbating the backlog of containers.

The result? Delayed shipments, longer waiting times at major ports like Shanghai, and disrupted schedules that have left many vessels stranded at terminals.

Blank Sailings and Diversions

Another side effect of the alliance shifts has been the rise in blank sailings and diversions. Blank sailings, where a scheduled voyage is canceled due to insufficient cargo or other operational reasons, have increased across the Asia-Europe route, further straining supply chains.

The geopolitical instability in the Red Sea has also prompted several shipping companies to divert vessels around the Cape of Good Hope instead of passing through the Suez Canal, resulting in longer transit times and increased freight rates. Attacks in the region, particularly by Iran-backed Houthi rebels, have heightened concerns over vessel safety, prompting carriers to adopt this detour as a precautionary measure.

Declining Service Reliability

As a result of these scheduling changes, the shipping industry has seen a significant decline in service reliability. On-time performance, which was once a benchmark for efficiency, has plummeted for many carriers. Some are reporting on-time rates as low as 55%, a far cry from the 90% reliability target that many had been able to achieve in the past.

To combat this, the Gemini Cooperation aims to improve on-time reliability by reducing port calls and utilizing larger vessels on key trade routes. The new alliance is targeting a return to 90% on-time performance by optimizing operations and adapting to current market conditions.

The Road Ahead

With these ongoing disruptions, stakeholders across the shipping industry are bracing for continued challenges. While the restructuring of alliances is seen as a necessary step to adapt to evolving market demands, businesses and consumers must prepare for fluctuating schedules and unpredictable freight rates.

As shipping companies continue to adapt to these changes, flexibility and vigilance will be key for those relying on global trade networks. With ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and shifting market strategies, the next few months will likely be marked by further disruptions, and companies must remain agile to navigate the changing landscape.